Livestock Research for Rural Development 25 (9) 2013 Guide for preparation of papers LRRD Newsletter

Citation of this paper

Camel and cattle population dynamics and livelihood diversification as a response to climate change in pastoral areas of Ethiopia

T Yosef, U Mengistu, A Solomon*, Y K Mohammed and K Kefelegn

Haramaya University, PO Box 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia
* Institute of Biodiversity Conservation (IBC), PO Box 30726, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
yosef.tadesse@gmail.com

Abstract

The objective of this study was to assess camel and cattle population dynamics and its implication on species conservation, and livelihood diversification of pastoralists. Cattle and camel population dynamics, and household incomes were quantified using herd histories and interviews of pastoralist households that inhabit Afar, Oromiya, and Somali National Regional States (NRS) of Ethiopia. From each NRS two-four districts were selected based on camel and cattle population and accessibility and from each district 25-32 pastoralist households were selected using stratified random sampling by considering wealth status. Thus, a total of 200 interviewees were involved in the study.

Respondents said that pastoralists faced five to seven drought periods during the past 30 years and lost 45-70% of their cattle in each of the periods. As a consequence, the pastoralists developed considerable interest in camel production and livelihood diversification as a mitigation strategy to climate change. Camel population increased during the past 20 years by 10, 20, 25, 15, 25 and more than 200% respectively in Gode, Jijiga, Shinille, Mille, Amibara and Borena Districts. On the contrary cattle population decreased from 50-70% in most of the study districts during the past 20 years. Currently, 13.8, 25, 10.4 and 7.8% of the interviewed households in Gode, Jijiga, Shinille and Borena Districts, respectively do not possess cattle. The study showed that livelihood diversification is practiced by about 15-35, 20-25 and 5-10% of pastoralists in Somali, Borena and Afar, respectively. All interviewed pastoralists favor increment of camel. All interviewed pastoralists in Jijiga, Mille and Borena Districts have a plan to reduce cattle number in the herd in the future. Most of the interviewed pastoralist in Gode and Shinille Districts favor reduction of cattle number in the herd. The majority of pastoralists in Amibara District started crossing the local cattle with other indigenous Kereyu cattle breed type as a mitigation strategy to climate change, since the later is believed to be better adapted to the arid environment. Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists are engaged in off farm activities such as selling firewood and charcoal, and petty trading to diversify income. Accordingly 15-20, 20-25 and 5% of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in Somali (Gode, Jijiga and Shinille), Borena (Yabelo and Moyale) and Afar (Amibara and Mille), respectively are engaged in different off farm activities. In general, the results showed that cattle population is decreasing from time to time, while camel population is in increasing trend in arid and semi-arid areas as a result of the combined effects of pastoralist needs and the impact of climate change, which could position the indigenous cattle breed at risk in the near future. Therefore, appropriate restocking, quick identification and implementation of conservation strategies of pastoral cattle breeds, and creating access to on farm and off farm activities through strategic projects in the region are important to diversify pastoral household income and sustainably utilize cattle breeds.

Keywords: conservation, ethiopian pastoralists, genetic homogeneity, livestock population, population dynamics, threat


Introduction

The majority of the Afar, Somali and Borana people are pastoral communities who mainly depend on livestock. Pastoral livestock population approximately account for 42% of the national population. Camel, cattle, sheep and goats are the dominant livestock species. These pastoral regions are also known for producing high quality livestock and meat for export and domestic market. However, the sustainability of the pastoral system and people’s livelihood have been questioned during the last few decades. Climate variability is considered as a major threat to the pastoral economy (Cossins and Upton 1988). The trend in climate changes in the past 50 years, and projection for the next 20 years in East and South Eastern pastoral zones of Ethiopia showed a north-west ward retreat in Belg (short rainy season) rain with about 250 mm decline in the rain (Funk et al 2012). The drop in rainfall reduced the quantity and quality of viable pasturelands and replacement of grassland by bush encroachment, which could be utilized by only some specific livestock species. Moreover, the frequent droughts in these areas are making it difficult for livestock to recover during the poor rainy seasons.

Earlier evidence from the 1980s and 1990s estimated that 37 and 42% of the cattle population in Borana pastoral area were lost due to the impact of drought (Desta and Coppock  2002). Studies conducted in southern Ethiopia indicated that  cattle  holdings fell  from  an  average  of 92 in 1980  to  58  head/ household  in  1997, showing   an  overall net  drop  of 37% in cattle population during these period (Desta and Coppock 2002). The change in livestock dynamics is mainly attributed to climate change (Hoffmann, 2010; Thornton and Gerber 2010). Joanne et al (2005) reported death of 45,090 cattle in 17 districts of Afar national regional state (ANRS) during the drought period of 2003/04, but they also noted that body condition of goat and camel are not seriously affected. Moreover, reports of CSA (2003) revealed that 75% of the cattle in the more arid zones of the ANRS were severely affected by the drought that occurred in 2003/04. Similarly, deaths of 90% cattle and 70% sheep were recorded in Gode zone during the drought of 1999 (Mohammud  1999).

For indigenous species, it is appropriate to assess and model the likelihood, speed and impact of the various aspects of climate against genetic evolution and the population dynamics of livestock and use the results to guide the need for interventions. Absence of such scientific intervention, lack of selection of breeds with effective thermoregulatory control, failure to include relevant traits in relation to climate change in breeding indices, and the failure to consider genotype by environment interaction to identify animals most adapted to specific conditions will lead to the reduction in viability of the livestock production systems and if the present reluctance in considering such important factors in the effort to conserve indigenous cattle ecotypes continues, Ethiopia will lose its cattle diversity irreversibly. In this regard, the study conducted by Solomon et al (2011) revealed the presence of low level of genetic differentiation between Abigar, Borana, Horro, Sheko and Guraghe breeds. The result of other similar study (Dadi et al 2008) also warned that cattle populations, such as the Borana, Arsi, Ambo, Adwa, Ogaden, Horro, Fogera, Raya-Azebo, Danakil, and Sheko are at risk of becoming genetically homogenous unless effective and appropriate breeding management practices are implemented.

Although efforts made by pastoralists were not sufficiently supported by scientific methods to limit the impact of climate change and other disturbances, they have taken different mitigation strategies. Different studies (Kaufmann and Binder  2002; Jones and Thornton  2008) indicated that raising camels may replace crops and other livestock in the hardest-hit arid areas of the African continent. The potential of camel in arid and semi-arid areas for generating milk or providing income from their sale (Sperling 1987) was initially being considered as uneconomical. However, their value is now becoming increasingly acknowledged as a result of climate change (Care Ethiopia 2009). A typical example of this is the increasing number of camel population in pastoral community in response to changing ecology and feed availability. It seems logical to rely more on browsing animals as the rangeland is often covered by bushes and trees and make economic use of them feasible (Kejela et al 2005). This has therefore, triggered changes in livestock composition.

Diversification of income is a long practiced strategy by many livelihoods in order to minimize risk of external shocks, since different sources of income are likely to be affected differently by external shocks. Income diversification is key for risk management and will help vulnerable pastoral households to meet and smoothen consumption, social and labor needs and develop incomes. Therefore, the objectives of this paper were to assess cattle and camel population dynamics in response to climate change and its implication on species conservation, and livelihood diversification of pastoralists in some parts of Ethiopia.


Materials and Methods

Study area and the community

The study involved three major geographical locations of camel rearing regions i.e. Afar, Oromiya, and Somali national regional states. The communities in the three regional states involved in this study were pastoralists where recurrent drought was observed for the past decades. The specific study sites from Somali national regional state (SNRS) included two rural kebeles (Rk, the smallest administrative unit in Ethiopia) from Jijiga District, two Rk from Gode district and two Rk from Shinille dstrict. The sample area from Afar national regional state (ANRS) included two Rk from Mille district, two Rk from Amibara district. The corresponding sample area from Oromiya, Borena zone was four Rk from Moyale and Yabelo districts.

Shinille and Jijiga study sites are geographically found between 9°00’N-10°00’N latitude and 42°00’E – 43°30’E longitude. Gode site is located between 6°N-6°30’N latitude and 43°E-43°30’E longitude. Sites from Moyale and Yabelo are situated between 3°30’N-5°30’N latitude and 39°00’E-41°00’E longitude. The corresponding location for Mille and Amibara  sites is between 11°21'-11° 30’ N latitude, 39°38'-40° 45’ E longitude and 09°N-10°N latitude and 39°45' E -40°30' E longitude, respectively (Figure 1). 


Figure 1.
Map of Study districts in Afar, Oromiya, and Somali Regional states

Methods of data collection and analysis  

Cattle and camel herd size dynamics, and household incomes were quantified using herd histories, interviews by employing semi-structured questionnaire and counting the present number of livestock in the morning or evening with in the barn. The sample households included 26, 25, 29, 32, 29, 29, and 30 households from Yabelo, Moyale, Gode  Jijiga,  Shinille, Amibara, and Mille districts, respectively making a total of  200 households and on average from 12-15 samples were taken per kebele in each district. In order to properly describe the response of each individual, household was stratified based on wealth status and proportional samples were taken from each strata within kebele.

The questionnaire was designed to obtain information on general historical perspectives, people’s perception of camel and other livestock species rearing, understandings about livestock (cattle, camel and shoat) husbandry and breeding practices, understanding of breed characteristics in terms of milk yield and its utilization, resistance to drought and related environmental hazards, selection criteria, participation in on farm and off farm activities and other relevant information on herd history. Rapid Rural Appraisal Technique was used and one group discussion per site was undertaken with elders.

Data collection was conducted using semi-structured questionnaire with the help of trained enumerators who are capable of speaking the local language. Additional relevant information was generated and physical data were obtained through informal group discussion held with key informant (elders, community leaders and development agents) at various levels. Information collected during interviews (group discussion) was supported by observation during transect walk where critical environmental observation was done by giving special emphasis for the composition of livestock species in pastoral herd.

The software packages of SPSS version 16 and SAS (2008) were employed to generate descriptive statistics. The analysis was implemented separately for camel and cattle owners of each district. Rank was determined based on the proportion of the respondents in each district. During ranking of species the contribution of livestock species to pastoralists’ income and their importance to livelihood and social value were considered. For categorical data the Cochran–Mantel–Haenszel chi-square statistics was employed to compare the significance of the districts and regions. Results are presented mainly in the form of descriptive tabular summaries.


Results

Source of income for pastoralists’  

The source of income for pastoralist households’ in the study area is presented in Table 1. In all the national regional states, sale of livestock and livestock products are the major sources of income and livelihood. Earnings from other sources such as daily labor, charcoal and fire wood sale and the emerging crop production in pastoral areas contribute small percentage to the income of pastoralist households in almost all study districts. Although food aid is only mentioned in Mille district, it is considered by the community in the study areas to have contribution to their livelihood.

Table 1. Sources of pastoralist households’ income in the study area

Sites

Number of Household

Contribution of livestock as  household primary income (%)

Secondary household income

Gode

13

16

100

70-90

-
Crop (10-25%) and trade (5%)

Jijiga

32

70

Crop  (15%) and Trade (15%)

Shinille

29

65

Crop (15%) and Trade (20%)

Mille

30

90

Crop and Trade (5%) and food aid (5%)

Amibara

19

10

100

95

-

Trade (5%)

Borena(Yabelo)

 

Borena(Moyale)

5

21

7

18

100

70

100

65

 

Crop(5%)  and Trade(25-30%)

-

Crop (5%) and Trade(30%)

Contribution of livestock species to pastoralists’ income 

Contribution of livestock species to pastoralists’ household income is presented in Table 2. All interviewed households in Gode, Jijiga, and Shinille earned income primarily from camel which is followed by goat, sheep or cattle. However, the primary source of income for Mile and Amibara pastoralists is from sale of goat followed by sheep and cattle, which may indicate the low value given to camel as a source of income. Only 23.08% of Yabelo (Borena) pastoralist households consider cattle as the major source of income while the majority (76.92%) considers camel to be the primary source of household income.

Table 2. Contribution of livestock species to pastoralist households’ income in the study area 

Sites

Household frequency

Percent

Livestock species with Primary contribution to HH income

Livestock species with secondary contribution to HH income

Gode

24

4

82.4

13.8

Camel

camel

Goat

Cattle

Jijiga

26

4

87.5

12.5

Camel

Camel

Sheep and cattle

-

Shinille

26

3

89.7

10.3

Camel

Camel

Goat and cattle

Goat

Mille

30

100

Goat

Sheep and cattle

Amibara

29

100

Goat

Sheep and cattle

Yabelo

20

76.9

Camel

Goat and cattle

 

6

23.1

Cattle

goat and camel

Moyale

22

88.0

Camel

Goat and cattle

 

3

12.0

Cattle

Goat and camel

Overall importance of livestock species to pastoralists’ household  

Overall importance of livestock as judged by their contribution as a source of income and livelihood, prestige, adaptation to harsh environment and milk production is presented in Table 3. Camel is the most important animal to pastoralists’ households in all the study districts when all functions of livestock are considered. Goat follows camel in importance while sheep and cattle generally seem to be the third and fourth, respectively important animals in the pastoral areas.

Table 3. Ranking of overall importance of livestock species as perceived by pastoralist households’  in the study area 

Region

Sites

Frequency

Percent

               Livestock  species

Rank1

Rank2

Rank3

Rank 4

Somali

Gode

28

1

96.6

3.45

Camel

Camel

Goat

Goat

Sheep

Cattle

cattle

Somali

Jijiga

22

10

68.8

31.2

Camel

Camel

Sheep

Cattle

Cattle

Sheep

Goat

 

Somali

Shinille

26

3

89.7

10.3

Camel

Camel

Goat

Goat

Cattle

Sheep

Sheep

Cattle

Afar

Mille

22

8

73.3

26.7

Camel

Camel

Goat

Cattle

Cattle

Goat

sheep

Afar

Amibara

29

100

Camel

Cattle

Goat

Sheep

Oromia

Borena(Yabelo)

20

6

76.9

23.1

Camel

Cattle

Goat

Goat

Cattle

Sheep

Oromia

Borena(Moyale)

 

22

3

88.0

12.0

Camel

Cattle

Goat

Goat

Cattle

Sheep

Trend in livestock population as perceived by pastoralists 

Perception of pastoralists regarding trend of camel populations and camel number per household during the study period and before 20 years are indicated in Table 4. Interviewed households in the entire study district projected that the population of camel will increase in the future. All interviewees and the group discussants in all the study districts unanimously noted that they would like to increase the number of camels in their herd during the next 10 years. Average heads of camel per household in the last 20 years did not seem to have big variation in Shinille, Mille, and Amibara districts with the present camel population per head as compared to population 20 years back in Jijiga and Gode. Unique finding of the present study is that camel were reared by small number of Borana pastoralists before 20 years, whereas current camel number per interviewed households is similar to that of other districts indicating that camels are becoming important species of animal where it was not known before.

Table 4: Trends of camel population dynamics in the past 20 years  in the study area  as reported by pastoralists

Sites#

Current camel number

No. of respon.

Percent

Camel no.

before 20 years

No. of respon.

Percent         
                         

Gode

15-20

20-50

>50

4

24

1

13.8

82.8

3.45

40-80

20-40

 

3

26

 

10.4

89.6

 

Jijiga

15-30

30-50

24

8

75

25

10-40

<10

21

11

65.6

34.4

Shinille

<20

20-40

22

7

75.9

24.1

<15

15-30

13

16

44.8

55.2

Mille

15-30

30-50

>50

6

21

3

20.0

70.0

10.0

20-30

30-40

19

11

63.3

36.7

Amibara

10-20

20-40

19

10

65.5

34.5

10-30

30-40

24

5

82.8

17.2

Borena (Yabelo)

5-10

10-15

>15

7

18

1

26.9

69.2

3.85

 

Absent

 

4

22

 

15.4

84.6

 

Borena (Moyale)

<10

10-20

 

>20

9

12

4

36.0

48.0

 

16.0

 

Absent

6

19

24.0

76.0

#Overall: Chi-Square (27.7, P > 0.001 and 34.5, P > 0.001) were found between districts and regions, respectively.

Unlike camel population, in all the areas studied the current cattle number per respondent pastoralist household is lower than reported before 20 years (Table 5). Pastoralists that do not posses cattle were noted in all the study districts, except Amibara. All of the respondents in Jijiga, Mille and Borena Districts who own cattle intend to decrease the number of cattle during the next 10 years. Similarly, 79.3% and 58.6% of the interviewed households in Gode and Shinille Districts, respectively have a plan to decrease cattle number in the future. However, the situation in Amibara is a little bit different from the rest of the districts. In this district the majority (65.5%) of the interviewed households have the interest to raise cattle number in the future by crossing their indigenous cattle with breeds having better resistance to drought and disease. Only 34.5% of the households intend to decrease cattle number. Pastoralists in Amibara district perceive that their indigenous cattle breed is less resistance to recurrent drought and disease occurred in the past than cattle breed in adjacent pastoral areas.

Table 5. Trends of cattle population dynamics in the past 20 years and the future projection in the study area as reported by pastoralists

Sites

Current cattle number

No. of respo.

Percent

Cattle no. before 20 years#

No. of respon.

     Percent

Future projection##

No. of   respondents

 

Percent

 

Gode

<15

15-30

>30

No cattle

12

12

1

4

41.4

41.4

3.4

13.8

10-20

40-60

>100

 

5

5

19

 

17.3

17.2

65.5

Decrease

Increase

23

6

79.3

20.7

Jijiga

<20

20-40

No cattle

18

6

8

56.3

18.8

25.0

>40

10-40

 

6

26

 

18.8

81.3

 

Decrease

 

32

 

100

 

Shinille

<15

15-40

No cattle

13

13

3

44.8

44.8

10.4

10-20

20-40

<10

8

18

3

27.6

62.1

10.3

Increase

Decrease

 

12

17

 

41.4

58.6

 

Mille

<15

15-20

20-40

1

19

10

3.4

63.3

33.3

>100

20-60

22

8

73.3

26.7

Decrease

30

100

Amibara

<15

15-20

18

11

62.1

37.9

40-60

20-40

18

11

62.1

37.9

Decrease

Increase(by crossing)

10

19

34.5

65.5

 

Borena(Yabelo)

<15

15-40

No cattle

7

18

1

26.9

69.2

3.85

60-80

>100

40-60

20-40

12

4

6

4

46.2

15.4

23.1

15.4

 

Decrease


26

 

100

Borena(Moyale)

<15

15-40

 

No cattle

10

12

3

40.0

48.0

12.0

40-60

>60

20-40

10-20

11

4

6

4

44.0

16.0

24.0

16.0

Decrease

25

100

#Chi-Square of 12.3, P > 0.05 b/n districts and 7.53, P > 0.05 b/n regions

##Chi-Square of 6.90, P > 0.05 b/n districts

Relationship between wealth status and camel-cattle population 

Distribution of camel among wealth status groups of owners in the study districts is indicated in Table 6. In this study wealth is described by the number of camel in Somali and Afar pastorals whereas in Borena it is described by the number of cattle and camel altogether. In Gode and Mille districts in order to be classified in rich category an individual should have more number of camels in comparison to other districts. The number of camels to be classified in poor category in Borena districts is lower than all the other districts.

Table 6. Relationship of wealth status with number of camel owned

Sites

Camel number

Wealth

Frequency

Percent

Gode

    >40

20-40

5-20

Rich

Medium

Poor

11

14

  4

37.9

48.3

13.8

Jijiga

30-40

20-30

5-20

Rich

Medium

Poor

 8

18

 6

25.0

56.3

18.8

Shinille

20-30

10-20

5-10

Rich

Medium

Poor

7

14

8

24.1

48.3

27.6

Mille

   >40

15-40

5-15

Rich

Medium

Poor

8

14

8

26.7

46.6

26.7

Amibara

 

 

30-40

10-30

<10

Rich

Medium

Poor

5

14

10

17.2

48.3

34.5

Borena

>15

5-15

<5

Rich

Medium

poor

12

24

15

23.5

47.1

29.4


Table 7. Relationship of wealth status with number of cattle owned in Borena Pastorals

No.of livestock

Wealth

Frequency

Percent

Cumulative percent

30-40

Maximum

10

19.6

19.6

15-30

Medium

20

39.3

58.9

<15

Minimum

17

33.3

92.2

None

None

4

7.8

100

In accordance with the present study, the Central Statistics Agency (CSA) Agricultural Sample Survey of 1997-2011 (Table 8, Figure 2 & 3) revealed that the cattle populations in most districts of pastoralists’ areas are on a decreasing trend and camel population is increasing. The percentage changes of 2011 over 1997 for camel in Jijiga and Mille districts showed a tremendous increment followed by Borena, Shinille and Amibara districts, respectively. On the contrary, percentage change of cattle for the year 2011 over 1997 for Shinille, Jijiga, Amibara and Borena districts, have shown a decreasing trend.

Table 8. Population and percentage change of cattle and camel in  Afar, Somali region states and Borana zone

 

Zones

      Shinille     

          Jijiga  

Amibara

Mille

Borena

Cattle

Camel

Cattle

Camel

Cattle

Camel

Cattle

Camel

Cattle

Camel

1997

23080

10,000

323,400

24,970

451,470

186,004

143,990

9810

1,418,900

49,830

1998

34110

7570

341,320

20,050

192990

143,220

26,730

3670

1,124690

62,630

1999

18,040

3110

252,930

22,000

202,180

25,170

77,100

2880

990,820

76,290

2000

21810

4,410

338,060

26,570

164,960

36,510

53930

2810

1,042,450

117,980

2003

17,146

6767

289,939

30,676

259,431

108,949

126,374

15,587

987,814

37,805

2004

18,150

4,274

297,181

38,673

178,204

60,347

149,169

NA

1,087,127

61,677

2005

12,322

4717

370,063

55,575

197,154

93,051

119,954

NA

1,170,157

38,804

2006

18,783

7787

200,782

184,677

307,390

112,536

140,590

31,214

1,176,620

44,306

2007

37,318

27,728

377,363

81,221

177,207

NA

223,960

54,068

1,224,163

97,131

2008

18,878

15,118

372,940

76,952

218,045

124,202

255,225

47,312

1,398,186

41,647

2010

15,246

16,951

248,435

72,390

319,213

213452

579,865

165,776

1,125,594

99,865

2011

19,694

11,645

296,843

85,054

288,143

148,769

622,655

127861

983,466

82,681

Percentage change 2011 over 1997

-14.6

+16.5

-8.21

+241

-36.2

-20.0

+332

+1203

-30.7

+65.9

Source: Central Statistics Authority (CSA) * For Gode zone data was not available in CSA



Figure 2.
Cattle population trend in Afar, Somali
regional states & Borena zone


Figure 3.
Camel population trend in Afar, Somali & Borena zone


Discussion

Higher income generated from camel and small stock as compared to that from cattle in the present study areas indicate the importance of camel and small stock in more arid areas than cattle under the current scenario of climate change. This is in agreement with earlier studies (Bekele et al 2008) that noted increased aridity in Borona Zone shifted the principal stock gradually from cattle combined with small stock to camels combined with small stock. Respondent of Borena pastoralists indicated that social status of households increased with increasing camel number in the recent years. This shows the increased value given by the community to camels than other livestock species. Household income from livestock for Afar pastoralists mainly come from small stock. This is consistent with that reported by Cossins (1983) who indicated that the Afar pastoralists largely depend on selling of small stock for subsistence. It is worth nothing that, selling of milk and milk products is not common in the study areas of Afar tradition and most of the Afar pastoralists’ use milk and milk products as a staple food. This is the reason for the low contribution of camel to immediate and direct household income in comparison with small stocks. This study is consistent with that of Alemayehu (2001) who noted that utilization of milk is largely governed by the need of the community and other cultural and traditional limitation. Use of camel milk as staple food by Afar community indicates the prestigious value of camel in the region, and that is why camel is given 1st rank in overall importance as compared to other livestock species, although camel does not contribute much in generating income for immediate and direct household cash income. Afar pastoralists sell camels only when they require large amount of money.

Somali pastoralists frequently sell surplus male and unproductive camels. This is in agreement with Schwartz (1992) who stated that camels are important sources of cash for Somali pastoralists from sale of milk, milk products, and sales of surplus male and unproductive camels. Mehari et al (2007) also noted that camel milk sale was the main source of income and there are a number of camel milk collection centers for sell in local towns and cities as well as transported up to Somaliland. Other study (Abdi et al 2011) indicated that dairy camels of about 450 were available in Gode town and the revenue per day from the sale of camel milk was estimated to be about 16,875 birr (USD 900) These studies showed that camels are the primary animal in providing both immediate and direct cash income to the Somali pastoralists.

Wealth determination among the Borana pastorals consider both camel and cattle number. In agreement with the present finding, Care (2009) reported that Borana pastoralists recognized camels as providing long-term security to beneficiaries in terms of milk production and improved social status. Similarly wealth status of Afar and Somali pastoralists are mainly determined by the number of camels owned. Borana pastoralist who own less than 5 camels is classified into medium/lower wealth group but, do not considered as poor as in the case of Somali and Afar pastoralists.  Study result indicated that Afar and Somali pastoralists owning less than 5 camels is considered as poor, 5-20 subsistent, and 20-30 as medium and above 30 rich. Tegegne (1991) noted that Afar pastoralist having 10 camels is considered as subsistent level, but having more than 70 places the household in a rich social status, indicating that camel number per household were higher than the present time. The highest number of camel population in Gode and Jijiga districts in this study was similar to reports of Devereux (2004) who observed that heavily pastoral Somali Region emerges as the wealthiest of all Ethiopia‘s rural regions.

Livelihood diversification observed in the study areas may indicate the response of pastoralists to avoid risk of losing livestock due to climate change, rangeland degradation and other factors. In addition, it indicates that the productivity of livestock decreased due to the occurrence of multiple droughts in the region, which in turn made income diversification an important venture and alternative option to increase income and sustain livelihood. According to this study, Somali pastoralists are more involved in livelihood diversification (15-35%) than Afar pastoralists (5-10%). This may be the cultural influence among Afar pastoralists’ communities, which discourage involvement in activities other than livestock rearing. Previous study also depicted that 70 % of the Somali pastoralists engaged in livestock rearing while 30 % in crop cultivation, fire wood selling and petty trade (Devereux 2006).  About 20 % of income earning from non-pastoral sources for many pastoral locations in Eastern and Southern Africa were also reported by Little et al (2010). Similarly, Little (2001) noted that livestock herders of East Africa increasingly pursue non-pastoral income strategies to meet consumption needs and to buttress against risky shocks caused by climatic fluctuation, animal disease, market failure, and insecurity. About 72, 18, and 10 % of pastoral, arable farming, and non-farm non pastoral livelihood among Borena pastoralists was also reported by Birhanu et al 2007.

COMESA (2009) suggested that income diversification as a risk coping and management strategy will continue to increase among pastoralists especially in light of the future uncertainties in climate change and food prices. This report also noted that livelihood diversification should be distinguished between good and less good form of diversification to provide employment for poor and supporting pastoral production.

The present study revealed that the current cattle number was 60% less than before twenty years in Borena pastorals. Ayana (2007) also noted that cattle holdings of Borena zone during the past 20 years have decreased by 54%, indicating that the total population of Borana cattle was dwindling during the past few decades. This is attributed to loss of cattle due to low productivity of the rangeland, erratic rainfall, and multiple droughts. In recent years, cattle herd in Borana consists of higher proportion of heifers than cows, which could be an indication of high mortality of breeding female than non-breeding classes of cattle. In this regard, the study by Ayana (2007) explained that drought induced mortality affected breeding females and immature animals more than mature males in both ranch and communal rangeland systems in Borana regions.

In southern Ethiopia, cattle herd dynamics both in communal and ranch management is strongly determined by rainfall variability (Ayana and Oba 2007) which shows that climate change in the region affected both cattle in communal grazing land and ranch management. This may raise a question about the importance of ex-situ conservation for Borana cattle in ranches out of its breeding tract. Paradoxically, an existing public ranch (Adamitulu-Abernosa) has been privatized and being used for other purpose.

Similar to Borana area, the trend of climate change, recurrent drought and loss of livestock was indicated in the study by Logiya councilors and Vanessa (2009) who described that previously the Afar region climate experienced three rainy seasons throughout the year; the ‘Karma’ rain considered the main rainy season and lasts for a period of approximately 2 months and comes from the highlands (in the months of July and August). The second season is ‘Daddah’ and comes from the direction of the red sea (in the months of November and December or winter rains) and is now the most unreliable often giving only a single shower. ‘Suggum’ is the third or short rainy season (in the months of March and April). The regional decrease in rain has seen the ‘Karma’ rainfall for only 15 days, then the ‘Suggum’ rain for 1-2 days only. Now the region generally sees rain in only one of these periods. The emerging pattern has been that if the ‘karma’ rains come, then the ‘suggum’ rains fail or vice versa, and these are at a much reduced quantity than usual. 

In relation to climate change and drought the study by Tegegne (1991) noted that Afar pastoralist having 10 camels is considered as subsistent level, but having more than 70 places the household in a rich social status, indicating that camel number per household were higher than the present time. As the author indicated that the pastoralist households lost 32% of the present camel stock and 4 times the number of goats, sheep and cattle they own today during the drought of 1984/85.  In addition, Melaku and Fissha (2001) reported that camel population trend decreased for the last 10 years (1990- 2000).  

Other study (Joanne et al 2005) indicated that a total of 45,090 cattle deaths were reported from 17 woredas in zone 1, 2 and 4 in the 2003/4 drought period but body condition of goat and camel were not seriously affected as the browse availability is not bad in all woredas. Due to the constant droughts and loss of herds of cattle, the Afar pastoralists have at their disposal less than 40% of the livestock compared with the situation of 10 years ago.   In relation to this Hamad (2008) noted that the repeated droughts in Afar region is related to natural climatic change, and the lack of grass and water often lead to the mass death of livestock. 

The result of this study in the reduction of cattle number for the past 20 years in Gode district was in agreement with Mahamud (1999) who reported that 1998/99 drought conditions in Gode, Imey-East, Adadley, and Danan districts were the worst in Gode zone from Somali regional state. According to the report more than 90% of the cattle and 70% of the sheep had died, and a few that remain were in an extremely emaciated condition.  

Similarly, in Shinille zone study by Beatrice et al (2009) reported that from the drought of 2007 and 2008 the communities lost about 80% of their cattle, 70% of their sheep, 40% of their camels and 30% of their goats. According to the same report extreme heat was mentioned as a major hazard in Shinile. The impacts of extreme temperatures are very similar to the impacts of droughts, including decreased pasture availability; increased water evaporation, leading to water shortages; emaciation and death of livestock; decreased livestock disease resistance and productivity.

The presence of higher number of cattle before 20 years in Gode, Borena and Mille districts in comparison to other districts may be due to the presence of favorable environmental and climatic condition. But currently all the study areas had small and almost similar number of cattle in comparison to the past 20 years. 

According to Funk (2012) the causes for such huge lose was climate changes observed in the pastoral areas of the country. The climate change which occurred for the past 50 (1960–2009)   years had showed a northwestward retreat of 250 mm of Belg season rain (March–June), and projected to continue for 2010–2039. The observed rainfall declines during the Belg season had been reducing the quantity and quality of viable pasturelands. Funk et al (2012) also noted that between the mid-1970s and late 2000s, Belg and Kiremt (main rainy season) rainfall decreased by 15–20 percent across parts of southern, southwestern, and southeastern Ethiopia. Whatever the case may be, it is evident that more and more pastoralist households, especially the poorer households, are increasingly affected by severe drought, which occurs approximately every 3 to 5 years (Aklilu and Catley 2010).  

As a consequence of high loses of cattle due to climate change, bush-encroachment and other factors most of the interviewed pastoralists in the present study areas lost interest to raise cattle in the future. Based on our survey some of the pastoralists in Amibara district lost interest on their indigenous cattle and start crossing with Kereyu cattle breed. The pastoralists presume that Kereyu cattle breed is more resistant than Afar breed to the present drought and climate change. In this regard Biffa & Chaka (2002) reported that pastoralists started animal species diversification, especially increased camel number to avert uncertainties, as strategy for drought mitigation and coping up with changing rangeland ecology in Borena zone. The study by Coppock et al. (2008) also suggested the importance of motivating pastoralists to consider diversifying assets and incomes to overcome impact of rainfall variability and stocking rate density.

In the present study and in reports of Central Statistical Authority (CSA) on livestock survey from 1997 to 2011, increments of camel population were clearly observed except for the year 2010/11, in all the study districts. This may show the importance of camel for the present and future climate change mitigation. This is because of the fact that camel is physiologically and physically adaptable animal to the expanding bush encroachment of arid areas. Biffa and Chaka (2002) reported that ecological changes, socio-cultural conditions, and increased frequencies of drought recurrences have been the main driving force behind the expansion of camels into the Borana plateau. Similarly, Solomon et al (2007) reported that camel holdings among Boranas have shown an increasing trend over time, while other livestock holdings were declining. The importance and number of camel is also increasing in other Sub-Sharan African countries. In this regard, among Wodaabe pastoralists in Niger, who are usually attached to cattle breeding, camel now represents a security tool for their livestock systems during hard times (Kratli 2007).


Conclusion


Acknowledgements

Financial support was provided by EIAR (Ethiopian institute of Agricultural Research) and Haramaya University. We thank the institutes for the grant. We thank employees of Regional Agricultural Bureaus and Ethiopian institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) in Afar and Somali regional offices for the unreserved cooperation and assistance during data collection.


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Received 24 July 2013; Accepted 14 August 2013; Published 4 September 2013

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